Oil, Libyans' Bargaining Chip

Conflict over Libya’s oil sector has become a proxy for numerous other conflicts that are working themselves out in post-uprising Libya. 

There was great hope in early 2012 that oil and gas revenues, which had rebounded fairly quickly after the overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi, would allow Libya to finance its own reconstruction and transition to democracy. Beneath this optimism, however, were troubling indications of the problems that were to beset Libya’s oil industry over the coming months. On April 23, 2012, protesters occupied the Benghazi headquarters of the Arabian Gulf Oil Company, demanding greater transparency over oil revenues and more jobs for the city’s residents. While this protest ended two weeks later with little impact on oil production, the grievances that fueled it continue to drive the protests, strikes, and violence that are causing dramatic declines in Libya’s oil production and associated revenues. Instead of facilitating a democratic transition, the oil industry has been plagued by ongoing conflict that has come to reflect and embody many other unresolved issues in post-revolution Libya.

You can read the full article on Sada's website here.

A Crumbling Salafi Strategy

This is linking to an article I published at Sada in August, 2013.

Ennahda has sought to engage Tunisia’s Salafi groups, but that approach has only undermined the party’s authority amid growing violence.

In the wake of its electoral victory, Tunisia’s ruling Islamist party, Ennahda, opened the political space to conservative movements that stood further to their political right. The party encouraged Salafi groups to renounce violence, organize parties, and join the political process. This was a radical change from the stance of the interim government, which had denied permits to Salafi parties, questioning their commitment to democratic principles. Ennahda members and activists were optimistic that involvement in the give and take of democratic politics would incentivize the Salafis to moderate their more radical views. However, after the combination of two high-profile political assassinations and escalating jihadi and vigilante violence has triggered a deepening political crisis, Ennahda’s strategy of accommodation appears to have backfired.

You can read the full article on Sada's website here.

Fighting in Sebha Continues

Fighting continued in Sebha today as government forces supported by militias from Misrata retook the Temenhent air base from armed groups reported to supporters of the Gaddafi regime.  Government forces captured 18 armed men from the air base, though fighting continues in and around Sebha, with government reinforcements posted outside the city ready to enter to support sympathetic forces inside Sebha. Eighty-eight people have been killed and 130 wounded in fighting in the region over the last two weeks.  The fighting has overwhelmed local hospitals and led the International Committee of the Red Cross to express concern about the humanitarian situation in the Sebha. 

Fighting erupted in Sebha erupted two years ago following the killing of  the commander of the Sebha revolutionary brigade, Mansour al-Aswad, at the hands of Toubou militias from Murzuk.  al-Aswad's killing apparently in retaliation for his role in the clashes between Toubou and the Arab Awlad Sulaiman tribe in Sebha in 2012. As fighting picked up in Sebha between Toubou and the Awlad Sulaiman, an armed group supposedly affiliated with the former regime seized control of the Temenhent air base on 15 Janurary.  There is speculation that these militias were under the control of, or merely inspired by, Muammar Gaddafi's son Saadi who is currently living in exile and under house arrest in Niamey, Niger. These identity of these shadowy Gaddafists remains a mystery, with some accusing the government of Prime Minister Ali Zeidan of manufacturing them to divert attention from its own failures.

Sobering article - How Libya could go bankrupt in under four years

Andrew Bauer of Revenue Watch poses what seems at first to be a proposterous question: will Libya go bankrupt in under four years? Libya, after all, has huge reserves of oil and gas, a healthy sovereign wealth fund and a relatively small population, facts that would seem to ensure years of consistent revenues.  The reality, however, is far less sanguine.  Revenues from oil and gas have plummeted due to strikes and blockades and government spending has skyrocketed, due mostly to the fact the the government employs up to half of the working population, which alone accounts for 38% of Tripoli's budget.  Bauer catalogues a laundry-list of other fiscal problems that, if left unaddressed, could drive quickly Libya to bankruptcy.

Bauer's article can be read in full here:

http://www.revenuewatch.org/news/blog/will-oil-rich-libya-go-bankrupt-less-four-years

Frustration grows with congress in Libya

As violence flares up in several regions of the country and political gridlock polarizes Tripoli, frustration in the General National Congess is growing amongst Libyans.

Asmaa Elourfi writes for Magharebia on how the current crises are leading to a crisis of confidence in the GNC.

"Amid continuing violence across Libya, many are expressing frustration with the General National Congress (GNC) and voicing scepticism that a constitutional drafting committee can bring change.

"No date has been set yet for the 60-member panel election because of citizens' abstaining from registering. As of Thursday (January 23rd), just 1,101,025 Libyans had registered to vote for the constitution drafting panel, according to the High National Electoral Commission (HNEC). 

"Ahmed Ali El-Ourfi, a 48-year-old Arabic teacher in al-Marj, said: "People don't trust individuals, and although the constitution-drafting panel is elected, they consider it to be a formality; second, people were shocked with those whom they voted for in the GNC."

Public support for the GNC amongst the Libyan population was already low before the current crises, with 60% of respondents in a poll conducted in September, 2013, rating the GNC's performance as poor. The current crises will likely further erode public support for the GNC just as the government will need broad public support to face the significant challenges facing the country.

Simultaneous security and political crises challenge Zeidan government

Overlapping security and political crises have collided to create a serious challenge to the government of Prime Minister Ali Zeidan. While Zeidan may yet be able to weather the political challenges to his government in Tripoli, he will likely emerge in a weakened position. Forced to deal with a hostile General National Congress (GNC) with his legitimacy in question, Zeidan's government will find itself even less able to deal with the number of other regional security and political crises roiling Libya.

The main political challenge to Zeidan's government comes from the Justice and Construction Party (JCP), the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya.  The JCP worked for weeks to gather the 120 votes necessary in the GNC to bring a vote of no confidence against Zeidan. Unable to marshal the votes, the JCP decided to quit the government and withdraw its five party members from Zeidan's cabinet. While the JCP failed to reach 120 votes, it did secure the signatures of 99 MPs out of the 194 in the GNC, showing the depth of disapproval for Zeidan's government.  This committed bloc will create significant difficulties for Zeidan as he tries to reform his cabinet and face several other simmering crises around Libya.

Meanwhile, simmering crises across Libya showcase the government's inability to act effectively and decisively to manage the country's security.  The death toll from clashes in Sebha between Toubou militias, militias affiliated with the Arab Awlad Sulieman tribe, and former Gadhafi loyalists, has reached 86, with over 100 wounded. 18 were killed in clashes in western Tripoli sparked when security forces raided the Wershefana area to arrest scores of wanted criminals.  In both of these cases, Zeidan was forced to call on militias for help in restoring calm.  This is a reversal for his government as it has called repeatedly for the militias and revolutionary brigades to disband or be absorbed into the government's security forces. In eastern Libya an assassination campaign against government sanctioned security forces in Benghazi continued this week, federalists remain in control of several of the region's oil export terminals, and conflict between Toubous and Arabs in southeastern Libya has led to tit-for-tat killings and attacks on oil and power generation facilities.

If and when Zeidan is able to emerge from political challenges in Tripoli, his government will be weakened and even less capable of dealing with the range of  security and political crises in Libya.  Despite a troubled relationship after the Gharghour incident, the government still relies on revolutionary brigades to project power, even within Tripoli itself.  While Zeidan has threatened force against the federalists blockading oil facilities in the east, it is unlikely he will have the means to do so any time in the near future.  And despite displeasure with Zeidan's leadership, it is unclear who would replace him and whether a new government would have any more success in facing Libya's immediate challenges.  

Desert Gives Al-Qaida Refuge After Mali Defeat

An excellent article from Paisely Dodds, Jamey Keaten and Aomar Ouali for NPR explores how southern Libya is quickly developing into a safe haven for Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb following the French intervention in Mali in January, 2013.  The authors write:

"In the rocky mountains and dune-covered wastes of southwestern Libya, al-Qaida's North African branch has established a haven after French and West African forces drove them out of their fledgling Islamic state in northern Mali a year ago. Now, according to interviews with local soldiers, residents, officials and Western diplomats, it is restocking weapons and mining disaffected minorities for new recruits as it prepares to relaunch attacks. It's an al-Qaida pattern seen around the world, in hot spots such as Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan and increasingly here in North Africa: seemingly defeated, the terror network only retreats to remote areas, regroups and eventually bounces back — pointing to the extreme difficulties involved in stamping out the threat."

The full article can be found here:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=263894840

Toubou leader Issa Abd al-Majid accuses Zeidan government of ethnic cleansing in Sebha

In an interview with al-Sharq al-Awsat (Arabic), Toubou leader Issa Abd al-Majid accused the Zeidan government of ethnic cleansing against the Toubou of southern Libya.  This comes after weeks of fighting between Toubou and the Arab tribe Awald Sulayman in Sebha have left scores dead and wounded and led Zeidan's government to send Libyan army units to establish security in the city.  Abd al-Majid accused the government of siding with the Awlad Sulayman in the conflict against the Toubou and said his community would be forced to seek international assistance if the attacks continued.  Abd al-Majid made similar accusations against Tripoli in March, 2012, after an earlier round of fighting between the Awlad Sulayman and Toubou in Sebha.

Political progress on Toubou demands, though tensions continue in southeast Libya

Toubou demonstrators in southeastern Libya have called of their threats to restart a blockade of the Sarir power station 160 kms south of Jalu.  Demonstrators called on the Zeidan government to evaluate the need to set up seperate Toubou districts and local councils in Kufra and to connect the remote Toubou settlement of Rebyana to the national electrical grid. Demonstrators blockaded the road leading to the plant last November, stopping fuel trucks from reaching the facility. Demonstrators agreed to end the blockade when negotiations with the government began in December, though threatened to restart it if their demands were not met (LH).

The Sarir power station is one of Libya's main power generation stations.  During the blockage the station was able to continue power generation from fuel reserves on site, though security concerns caused the plant to stop production briefly in December, leading to concerns about electricity shortages around the country (LH).

Toubou demonstrations at Sarir and demands for increased autonomy and recognition have raised tensions with the Arab Zwai tribe in the region, leading to a series of tit-for-tat killings and kidnappings.  Militias likely associated with the Zwai also attacked  guards at the Sarir facility in December let to several fatalities.  The facility is guarded by the National Army's 25th Brigade, which is composed largely of Toubou drawn from local militias. A breakthrough in early January between the Toubou and Zwai saw the release of hostages held by both sides, though violence continued a little over a week later when gunmen again attacked members of the 25th Brigade protecting Sarir, killing three. A Toubou soldier was also killed in Kufra in early January, and a Toubou teenager shot in the same city on 19 January.  Both of these events were linked to increasing tensions between the Toubou and Zwai.  

Continuing tensions between Toubou and Zwai in eastern Libya threaten to increase at the same time that violent clashes between Toubou and the Abu Sulayman tribe in southwest Libya has led the Zeiden government to call on the army and militias from northern Libya to restore order in Sebha.

Libya Security Update, 18-25 October

Despite Arrests, Assassinations Continue

In spite of a much trumpeted arrest of a "terrorist cell" leftover from Gaddafi's regime made up of Libyans and Chadians on 21 October, assassinations continue.  Authorities in Benghazi were anxious to show progress on catching those responsible for the rash of assassinations in the city over the past month after the assassination of military police commander Colonel Ahmed Mustafa Al-Barghathi on 18 October (LH). That assassination led to a tense weekend as al-Barghathi's confederates attacked and burnt the home of Libya Shield commander Wissam Ben Hamid, whom they accused of complicity in the attack. Later in the week, Benghazi was hit with two more assassinations.  On Thursday, unknown assailants killed Air Force Colonel Adel Khalil Tuawhani in front of his house in the Had'iq neighborhood of Banghazi (LNA). On Friday, Colonel Faraj Burwein was killed by unknown gunmen in the Hada'iq neighborhood of Benghazi (ONA). Benghazi also saw attacks on two police stations this week in Ras Obeida and Sabri (LH) and two bombings on Thursday in the Buhedama neighborhood (ONA).  No causalities were reported from these events.

View Larger Map
 Above: Interactive map of security incidents in Bengahzi, 18-25 October.  To explore, zoom and pan to specific locations.  Click on each incident for details and sources.

In other security news, a militia leader was assassinated in Msalata (LH) and a bomb was diffused before it exploded at the Triploi West power station (LH).

Libya Security Report, 1-18 October, 2013

Assassinations Continue in Benghazi

The string of assassinations continued in Benghazi over the last two weeks with 9 assassinations and 2 attempted assassinations.  After a relatively calm first week of October, an assassination attempt on 9 October against bomb disposal expert Captain Ismail Mohamed Al-Shareef Al-Saiti was unsuccessful after the al-Saiti escaped from minor injuries after a bomb exploded underneath his vehicle (LH). Two days later a bomb took the life of Salafi Imam Abd al-Salam al-Hasi as he was driving in his vehicle after deliver his Friday Khutba. Al-Haasi had been openly critical of the series of assassinations in Benghazi (al-Manar). On 13 October, unknown gunmen killed Lt. Col. Abdul Fattah Emhemed al-Riani of the Libyan Air Force (QN) and an attempt was made on the life of LTC Abd al-Salam al-Dous, a former officer long involved in anti-drig efforts (QN). On 14 October, an officer in the military prosecution office was killed by a megnetic IED (el-Fajr). On 15 October, three Libyan army soldiers were killed in two separate incidents (AJ, Shorouknews). On 18 October, the Chief of Libya’s Military Police, Colonel Ahmed Mustafa Al-Barghathi, was shot outside his house  when leaving for mosque (LH). There were also reports of bomb attacks against two police stations, though no casualties were reported (LH), in addition to a bomb attack against the Swedish/Finish Consulate which also resulted in no casualties (LH).

View Larger Map
 Above: Interactive map of security incidents in Bengahzi, 1-18 October.  To explore, zoom and pan to specific locations.  Click on each incident for details and sources.

Libya Security Update, 12-18 September, 2013

Security Events

 Above: Interactive map of security incidents in Bengahzi, 12-18 September.  To explore, zoom and pan to specific locations.  Click on each incident for details and sources.

It was another violent week in Benghazi with two assassinations and two attempted assassinations.  On 16 September, a member of the Ministry of Defense was killed and another injured when unknown gunmen opened fire on their vehicle in the al-Qawarisha section of Benghazi (LANA).  That same day, there were two attempted assassinations.  A Benghazi lawyer was targeted with a magnetic IED on his vehicle which detonated when he was not in the vehicle, and the second bombing occurred near the Jara Roundabout in the al-Salmani al-Sharqi district.  No one was hurt in either attack (LH). On 17 September an officer from the Benghazi CID was killed when an IED blew apart his vehicle in the al-Salmani al-Sharqi district.

Libya Security Update 9/12/2013

Benghazi Violence Continues

 Above: Map of Security incidents in Bengahzi, 5-12 September.  To explore, zoom and pan to specific locations.  Click on each incident for details and sources.

A large car bomb exploded outside the branch of the Libyan Foreign Ministry in Benghazi on the one-year anniversary of the assault on US consulate that led to the death of US Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans (LH, AFP). No fatalities were reported, but several people were injured and damage was extensive to the ministry building and a branch of Libya's Central Bank across the street.  Qurayna al-Jadidah provided pictures from the scene.  The bombing capped another violent week in Benghazi.  A series of attacks on security personnel on Sunday left two dead and one injured (LH).  Another member of the security forces was injured the same day when a magnetic IED on his vehicle detonated (QJ).  On Tuesday, retired Qadaafi-era official COL Salem Mohamed Al-Urufi was killed and his son critically injured by another magnetic IED (LH).

Libya Security Update, 15 August - 3 September

The map below displays security incidents in Libya between 15 August and 3 September, 2013.  You can zoom and pan the map to explore specific areas.  Click on specific incidents for details and sources.

Libya Security Update, 29 August 2013

LTC Shabahi: Clashes in Western Region between Armed Tamashwq Groups

Source: Libya al-Jadid

Department of Defense Spokesman LTC Abd al-Razzaq al-Shabahi denied that clashes taking place in the western regions were between the Worshanfana tribe and residents of Zawiya, but instead were between groups of armed Tamasheq.

Read the full article here.

Oil Production Down to a Quarter of a Million Barrels a Day

Source: Libya Herald, 29 August

Libya Security Update, 17-27 August 2013