Overlapping security and political crises have collided to create a serious challenge to the government of Prime Minister Ali Zeidan. While Zeidan may yet be able to weather the political challenges to his government in Tripoli, he will likely emerge in a weakened position. Forced to deal with a hostile General National Congress (GNC) with his legitimacy in question, Zeidan's government will find itself even less able to deal with the number of other regional security and political crises roiling Libya.
The main political challenge to Zeidan's government comes from the Justice and Construction Party (JCP), the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya. The JCP worked for weeks to gather the 120 votes necessary in the GNC to bring a vote of no confidence against Zeidan. Unable to marshal the votes, the JCP decided to quit the government and withdraw its five party members from Zeidan's cabinet. While the JCP failed to reach 120 votes, it did secure the signatures of 99 MPs out of the 194 in the GNC, showing the depth of disapproval for Zeidan's government. This committed bloc will create significant difficulties for Zeidan as he tries to reform his cabinet and face several other simmering crises around Libya.
Meanwhile, simmering crises across Libya showcase the government's inability to act effectively and decisively to manage the country's security. The death toll from clashes in Sebha between Toubou militias, militias affiliated with the Arab Awlad Sulieman tribe, and former Gadhafi loyalists, has reached 86, with over 100 wounded. 18 were killed in clashes in western Tripoli sparked when security forces raided the Wershefana area to arrest scores of wanted criminals. In both of these cases, Zeidan was forced to call on militias for help in restoring calm. This is a reversal for his government as it has called repeatedly for the militias and revolutionary brigades to disband or be absorbed into the government's security forces. In eastern Libya an assassination campaign against government sanctioned security forces in Benghazi continued this week, federalists remain in control of several of the region's oil export terminals, and conflict between Toubous and Arabs in southeastern Libya has led to tit-for-tat killings and attacks on oil and power generation facilities.
If and when Zeidan is able to emerge from political challenges in Tripoli, his government will be weakened and even less capable of dealing with the range of security and political crises in Libya. Despite a troubled relationship after the Gharghour incident, the government still relies on revolutionary brigades to project power, even within Tripoli itself. While Zeidan has threatened force against the federalists blockading oil facilities in the east, it is unlikely he will have the means to do so any time in the near future. And despite displeasure with Zeidan's leadership, it is unclear who would replace him and whether a new government would have any more success in facing Libya's immediate challenges.
The main political challenge to Zeidan's government comes from the Justice and Construction Party (JCP), the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya. The JCP worked for weeks to gather the 120 votes necessary in the GNC to bring a vote of no confidence against Zeidan. Unable to marshal the votes, the JCP decided to quit the government and withdraw its five party members from Zeidan's cabinet. While the JCP failed to reach 120 votes, it did secure the signatures of 99 MPs out of the 194 in the GNC, showing the depth of disapproval for Zeidan's government. This committed bloc will create significant difficulties for Zeidan as he tries to reform his cabinet and face several other simmering crises around Libya.
Meanwhile, simmering crises across Libya showcase the government's inability to act effectively and decisively to manage the country's security. The death toll from clashes in Sebha between Toubou militias, militias affiliated with the Arab Awlad Sulieman tribe, and former Gadhafi loyalists, has reached 86, with over 100 wounded. 18 were killed in clashes in western Tripoli sparked when security forces raided the Wershefana area to arrest scores of wanted criminals. In both of these cases, Zeidan was forced to call on militias for help in restoring calm. This is a reversal for his government as it has called repeatedly for the militias and revolutionary brigades to disband or be absorbed into the government's security forces. In eastern Libya an assassination campaign against government sanctioned security forces in Benghazi continued this week, federalists remain in control of several of the region's oil export terminals, and conflict between Toubous and Arabs in southeastern Libya has led to tit-for-tat killings and attacks on oil and power generation facilities.
If and when Zeidan is able to emerge from political challenges in Tripoli, his government will be weakened and even less capable of dealing with the range of security and political crises in Libya. Despite a troubled relationship after the Gharghour incident, the government still relies on revolutionary brigades to project power, even within Tripoli itself. While Zeidan has threatened force against the federalists blockading oil facilities in the east, it is unlikely he will have the means to do so any time in the near future. And despite displeasure with Zeidan's leadership, it is unclear who would replace him and whether a new government would have any more success in facing Libya's immediate challenges.
